Comment: Investing in the forex market is a problematic undertaking. Understanding exactly where price may move next would seem straightforward but escapes nearly all people. The main reason for this is they will generally fail to consider all the details that can be found. Only mastering signals and graphs just presents only half the picture. To obtain an edge over the forex market details are important and understanding where to locate it is actually crucial. We try to bring you the most essential content articles that will help you make smarter trading decisions. This article, ING’s Pound To Dollar 2018 Forecast: Analysts See GBP/USD Exchange Rate @ 1.53 This Year! provides you with the latest information about where the professionals feel exchange rate should go supplying you with an opportunity to become more profitable in your forex trading
British Pound continues to correct lower vs US Dollar into Easter Weekned
In the absence of any fresh positive or bearish news, Pound investors appear to be taking this moment to take some profit, but the reality for GBP/USD over the last few days appears to be a slightly stronger Dollar is dragging the euro to US dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate down with it.
UK GDP was released Thursday morning but the reading was on forecast at 1.4% and failed to lift Sterling exchange rates. There was some brighter news as total investment was better than forecast, a very important indicator that the British economy is still managing to attract investment, despite the uncertainty that still remains over Brexit.
ING see Cable exchange rate higher at years end
The agreement of a transition deal is a notable step towards the Brexit accord, and a rare win for Theresa May’s struggling Conservative party. Despite the agreement, some questions still remain, in particular over the Irish Border.
Forex Strategists at ING have an additional concern, as they fear that the transition period itself might not be long enough for all companies, regardless, however, they still see the Pound performing admirably this year,
“There is still a question of whether 21 months will be long enough for companies to adjust. This uncertainty, alongside ongoing consumer caution, is a key reason why we expect growth to struggle again through 2018. In principle this takes some of the heat off the Bank of England. But with wage growth on the rise, as well as global economic prospects improving, policymakers look set to hike rates again in May. This, alongside the recent agreement of a transition deal, should continue to give the pound a lift. We see GBP/USD at 1.53 at the end of 2018.”
The real struggles for the UK might not be abroad, but rather at home where the nation is still deeply divided.
Euroskeptic voices are extremely strong, and the uneasy détente during the transition period (which most are in agreement is a good idea) may now end as we move onto the more dramatic subject of trade.
J.P Morgan believes that a sizeable risk premium is still in the Pound, and clearly believe that it is the ultimate relationship between the UK and Europe which is driving things forward,
“Britain has yet to resolve its long-term relationship with Europe. Euroskeptics are pushing to largely divorce the British economy from the continent, whereas euro-friendly politicians would like to retain the nation’s access to the common market indefinitely. Uncertainty over the final direction of negotiations has created a risk premium of approximately 14 percent for the pound.”
The vulnerability of the Pound Sterling (GBP) exchange rate complex to any bearish shocks is apparent when looking at the CFTC report. Commercial hedgers are now increasingly short the British Pound, indicating that the risks which were once skewed to the upside, appear to now be firmly biased downwards.
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