Comment: For anybody that may be trading forex, trying to forcast exactly where price is heading next with certainty is definitely the holy grail. The truth is all of the evidence on the planet cannot give you any kind of guarantee that price will move in the way which they indicate. The truth is, that whenever forex trading, we are dealing with possibilities. The best way to locate the utmost success is to gather as much specialized and fundamental data together to produce your decision. Of course being aware of what the experts thinks as within Forex Market Outlook for the Week April 16 – 20, 2018 could also provide weight towards the reasons for any trade and thus we’re constantly hunting at the views of expert traders from brokers right through to live trading room.
Last week, the U.S. dollar wobbled a lot amid geopolitical tensions and encouraging data. The U.S., UK, and France attacked installations in Syrian thought to have chemical weapons. The surgical attack avoided Russian soldiers. However, Vladimir Putin, Russian President, called it an aggressive act and tensions continue to run high. Several other countries such as Israel and Iran are also involved in the clashes around Syria.
The U.S. inflation reading came in as expected. The significant increase in inflation may call for another rate increase this year. Geopolitical tensions contributed to pushing oil prices higher. However, trade tensions reduced as the U.S. and China exchanged pleasantries and agreed to negotiate the terms. ECB’s mixed messages helped the euro rebound, while weakness in manufacturing production hurt the pound a little bit.
Having said that here is an outlook on the releases for the upcoming week:
#1: U.S. Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales (04/16/2018 Monday 12:30 GT)
In the U.S. retail trade unexpectedly dropped by 0.1 percent on a month-over-month basis in February 2018 after the reading for the prior month was revised downward to a decline of 0.1 percent. The reading for the month missed analysts’ expectation for a gain of 0.3 percent. With the decline in February, retail trade in the U.S. has dropped for three months in a row. Retail trade declined mainly because of lower sales at gasoline stations and vehicles and parts dealers. Core retail sales, excluding the volatile gasoline and automobiles sales, rose by 0.2 percent in February.
Forecast for March 2018: A 0.4 percent increase in retail sales and 0.2 percent rise in core retail sales.
#2: Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (04/17/2018 Tuesday 01:30 GMT)
The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting 11 times in a year, two weeks after the announcement of the Cash Rate. The statement provides a detailed account of the most recent meeting of the Reserve Bank Board. It also provides an in-depth insight into the country’s economic conditions that impacted the members’ decision on setting the interest rates.
#3: China GDP (04/17/2018 Tuesday 02:00 GMT)
China’s economy grew 6.8 percent on a year-on-year basis in the final quarter of last year, at the same rate as in the prior quarter. However, the reading for the month beat analysts’ expectation for a 6.7 percent growth. For the full year 2017, the Chinese economy expanded 6.9 percent, much more than the target of 6.5 percent and the 26-year low of 6.7 percent recorded in 2016.
Forecast for the first quarter of 2018: 6.8 percent expansion.
#4: U.K. Average Earnings Index (04/17/2018 Tuesday 08:30 GMT)
The total earnings of UK workers, including bonuses, increased 2.8 percent to £514 per week during the three-month period that ended in January. The total earnings for the prior period were revised upward to a 2.7 percent gain. The reading for the current period came in above analysts’ expectation of 2.6 percent. This was the largest increase ever since the three-month period to September 2015. Wage growth gained momentum in construction and in the public sector. Excluding bonuses, total earnings grew 2.6 percent to £482 per week form the 2.5 percent increase in the prior period. This is the largest increase ever since the three-month period to November 2016. The reading for the current period matched with analysts’ expectations. In real terms, total earnings including bonuses remained unchanged, but total earnings excluding bonuses dropped by 0.2 percent, the eleventh consecutive period of decline.
Forecast for the three-month period to February 2018: An increase of 3.0 percent in total earnings including bonuses.
#5: U.S. Building Permits (04/17/2018 Tuesday 12:30 GMT)
In the U.S., the number of building permits issued fell by 4.1 percent from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis to 1.321 million in the month February 2018, according to revised estimates. It was reported earlier that the number of building permits issued slumped by 5.7 percent to 1.298 million.
Forecast for March 2018: 1.33 million
#6: U.K. CPI (04/18/2018 Wednesday 08:30 GMT)
In the U.K., a report released by the National Statistics Office showed that the consumer prices inflation rate fell to the 2.5 percent level in February from the 2.7 percent level in January. The reason for the decline was attributed to a lower increase in food and transport prices compared to the previous year.
Forecast for March 2018: 2.7 percent
#7: Canada Monetary Policy Report (04/18/2018 Wednesday 14:00 GMT)
Released on a quarterly basis by the Bank of Canada, the Monetary Policy Report provides valuable information about inflation and economic condition of the country in the central bank’s view. These are the major factors that are considered for formulating the monetary policy and deciding the interest rates.
#8: Canada Rate Statement (04/18/2018 Wednesday 14:00 GMT)
The Bank of Canada releases the Rate Statement eight times in a year. The central bank uses it as a tool to communicate with the investors as regards the monetary policy. The Rate Statement contains information about the Board’s decision on where to set the interest rates. It also provides a commentary on the current economic conditions that impacted their decision. More importantly, it provides an economic outlook and clues on future decisions.
#9: Canada Overnight Rate (04/18/2018 Wednesday 14:00 GMT)
In the meeting held in March, the Bank of Canada decided to hold the overnight rate at the 1.25 percent level after increasing it by 25 basis points in the prior meeting. Policymakers said that though the economic outlook warrants interest rate hike over time, some more monetary policy accommodation is needed for supporting growth and inflation. Policymakers also expressed concerns about the recent developments related to trade policy and said that there is growing uncertainty in terms of Canadian and global outlook.
Forecast for April 2018: 1.25 percent
#10: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (04/18/2018 Wednesday 14:30 GMT)
In the U.S., crude oil stocks increased 3.306 million barrels during the week that ended on April 6 after falling by 4.617 million barrels in the prior period which was the largest decline in as many as 11 weeks. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.189 million barrels.
Gasoline stocks increased 0.458 million barrels, following the decline of 1.116 million barrels in the prior period. Analysts had expected a drop of 1.425 million barrels.
#11: Bank of Canada Press Conference (04/18/2018 Wednesday 15:15 GMT)
The Bank of Canada Governor and Senior Deputy Governor holds a press conference for discussing the contents of the Monetary Policy Report about 45 minutes after the announcement of the Overnight Rate.
There two parts to the press conference. The first part involves the reading of a prepared statement. The conference is then left open to questions by the press. As the questions lead to unscripted answers, heavy market volatility can be expected.
#12: New Zealand CPI (04/18/2018 Wednesday 22:45 GMT)
In New Zealand, consumer prices rose by 0.1 percent in the final quarter of last year but were down from the 0.5 percent for the prior period. Analysts had expected a 0.4 percent increase. Transport prices rebounded and passenger vehicles prices rose. On the other hand, prices of food and vegetables and fruits declined. On a yearly basis, consumer prices increased 1.6 percent, following the 1.9 percent increase recorded in the prior quarter.
Forecast for the first quarter of this year: 0.5 percent
#13: Australia Employment Change and Unemployment Rate (04/19/2018 Thursday 01:30 GMT)
In Australia, employment rose by 17,500 in the month of February. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate increased slightly to the 5.6 percent level from 5.5 percent in the prior month. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to come in at 5.5 percent. The number of unemployed people rose by 8,900.
Forecast for March 2018: Addition of 20,300 jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.5 percent.
#14: U. K. Retail Sales (04/19/2018 Thursday 08:30 GMT)
In the U.K. retail trade rose by 0.8 percent on a month-over-month basis in February after the reading for the prior period was revised downward to a decline of 0.2 percent. Analysts had expected retail trade to increase by 0.4 percent. On a year-on-year basis, retail trade rose 1.5 percent, the same rate as in the prior month. However, it was better than analysts’ expectation for an increase of 1.3 percent.
Forecast for March 2018: a decline of 0.5 percent.
#15: Canada CPI (04/20/2018 Friday 12:30 GMT)
In Canada, the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.60 percent in February from the previous month.
#16: Canada Core Retail Sales (04/20/2018 Friday 12:30 GMT)
In Canada, retail sales increased at a slower-than-expected rate in the month January because of a drop in sales in the automobile and parts industry. Core retail sales rose by 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Statistics Canada. The reading for the prior month was revised to represent a decline of 0.7 percent. Analysts had expected retail trade to increase 1.1 percent.