Comment: For anybody who maybe currency trading, seeking to foresee where price is heading next with certainty is definitely the holy grail. The fact is every one of the signals on the globe cannot provide you any warranty that exchange rate will go in the direction that they point. The reality is, that when forex trading, we’re working with probability. The way to find the utmost success is to gather as much specialized and fundamental information and facts together to produce your final decision. Of course understanding what the experts senses as within EUR/USD Forecast: technical bounce likely to fizzle out near 1.2155 can also lend substance to the arguments for any position you take and so we are continually seeking at the views of expert traders from brokers right through to live trading room.
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair stalled its post-ECB downfall and rebounded around 75-pips from an intraday low level of 1.2055, the lowest since January 12. A modest US Dollar retracement primarily led by some profit-taking and despite better-than-expected first-quarter US GDP growth figures, was seen as one of the key factors behind the pair’s goodish recovery.
The pair kicked-off a new week on a quiet note and oscillated in a 15-pips narrow trading range above the 1.2100 handle as traders now look forward to the prelim German CPI print for some fresh impetus, expected to remain well below the ECB’s medium-term target of 2%. Even a slight miss would reinforce expectations that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates low for an extended period of time and might prompt some fresh selling around the shared currency.
Even from a technical perspective, the pair last week confirmed a bearish breakthrough 100-day SMA support and over the 3-month old trading range. Hence, any recovery attempts might now confront fresh supply at the trading range support break-point, now turned resistance, near the 1.2155 horizontal zone. Subsequent up-move beyond the mentioned hurdle should now be capped at the 1.2200 handle.
On the downside, weakness back below the 1.2100 round figure mark would reaffirm the bearish bias and accelerate the fall back towards the 1.2055-50 support. A follow-through selling pressure has the potential to continue dragging the pair further towards the key 1.20 psychological mark, also coinciding with the very important 200-day SMA, en-route its next support near the 1.1935 region.